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An assessment of the risk for groundwater pollution and vulnerability to pumping can help identify strategic groundwater bodies to define sustainable management measures of groundwater resources. In this paper, we propose a new method to make a preliminary estimation of the risk for groundwater pollution at the aquifer scale through the lumped turnover time index (T index). A new lumped index (L-RISK index) was defined to assess the significance of the risk for pollution at the aquifer scale. Both L-RISK and T indices were employed to calibrate a linear regression model that showed a good inverse correlation in the eight aquifers of the Upper Guadiana Basin (Spain). This novel method can be applied to analyze a wide range of aquifers with limited information in order to identify potential strategic aquifers. It also allows one to make a preliminary assessment of the impacts of climate change on L-RISK. The results showed a high variability of the T index in the eight aquifers (8–76 years). Three of them had significant greater mean T values, which could be considered to be the main strategic groundwater resources. In the future, the T index will increase between 8 and 44%, and the L-RISK will decrease in all aquifers (1–18%).

A Preliminary Lumped Assessment of Pollution Risk at Aquifer Scale by Using the Mean Residence Time. Analyses of Potential Climate Change Impacts