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Socioeconomic development in watersheds lead to land-use changes, which can alter water and sediment inflows into reservoirs, leading to uncertainty in water supply reliability. A modelling framework coupling the Soil and Water Assessments Tool (SWAT) and the @RISK genetic algorithm optimisation tool was developed to optimise water allocation and estimate water supply reliability under uncertainty in future land-use. The multi-purpose Nuicoc reservoir in Vietnam was used as a case study. Modelling results showed that an expansion of the urban areas by 10% and conversion of 5% of the forest to agricultural areas produced the highest water releases for downstream demands of all simulated scenarios, with 5 Mcm/year greater water releases than the baseline for the case where sedimentation was not considered. However, when sedimentation was considered, it generated the greatest decrease in water releases, with 6.25 Mcm/year less than the baseline. Additionally, it was determined that spatial distribution of land-use significantly affect sediment inflows into the reservoir, highlighting the importance of targeted sediment management. This demonstrates the usefulness of the proposed framework for decision-makers in assessing the impact of possible land-use changes on the reservoir operation.

A Framework to Assess the Reliability of a Multipurpose Reservoir under Uncertainty in Land Use