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The spatial and temporal (monthly) variability of river discharge has a significant effect on circulation and transport pathways within shallow embayments whose dynamics are largely controlled by wind and riverine inputs. This study illustrates the effects of the monthly variation in Trent River discharge on simulated particle transport and settling destination in the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario for the years 2016–2019. Observations of Lagrangian surface drifter data were used to derive Trent River discharge forcing for a three-dimensional hydrodynamic numerical model of the Bay of Quinte. Peak monthly flushing was up to three times as much as the lowest monthly flushing in any year, with the Trent River responsible for up to 95% of the flushing in low runoff years. Particle transport simulations showed that particles could be trapped along shorelines, which extended residence times, and Trent River releases suggest that researchers should look for delayed peaks in Total Phosphorous (TP) load measurements in observations between Trenton and Belleville as particles move downstream. Particles with constant settling velocities originating from the Trent River did not move downstream past Big Bay, and particles from the Napanee River were the primary source for Longreach.

Impact of the Monthly Variability of the Trent River on the Hydrodynamical Conditions of the Bay of Quinte, Ontario: A Case Study 2016–2019