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This study aimed at quantifying the impacts of climate and land use changes on flood damage on different flood occurrences. A Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model was calibrated for the period 2005–2011 and validated in the period 2012–2017, and was used to generate hydrographs using rainfall during the period 2020–2039 from CNRM-CM5, IPSL-CM5A-MR, and MPI-ESM-LR climate models under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. A Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model for use in generating inundation maps from hydrographs produced by HEC-HMS was calibrated and validated for 2010 and 2011 period, respectively. The climate and land use changes showed insignificant impacts on the extent of floods during 25-, 50-, and 100-year flood events, i.e., inundation in 2039 under RCP 4.5 is smaller than baseline (2000–2017) by 4.97–8.59 km2, whereas a larger difference of inundation is found for RCP 8.5 (0.39–5.30 km2). In contrast, the flood damage under RCP 4.5 (14.84–18.02 million US$) is higher than the baseline by 4.32–5.33 million US$, while the highest was found for RCP 8.5 (16.24–18.67 million US$). The agriculture was the most vulnerable, with a damage of 4.50–5.44 million US$ in RCP 4.5 and 4.94–5.72 million US$ in RCP 8.5, whereas baseline damages were 4.49–6.09 million US$. Finally, the findings are useful in the delivery of flood mitigation strategies to minimize flood risks in the lower Nam Phong River Basin.

Anticipating of Potential Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Floods: A Case Study of the Lower Nam Phong River Basin