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Cyanobacteria blooms are a worldwide concern for water bodies and may be promoted by eutrophication and climate change. The prediction of cyanobacterial blooms and identification of the main triggering factors are of paramount importance for water management. In this study, we analyzed a comprehensive dataset including ten-years measurements collected at Lake Varese, an eutrophic lake in Northern Italy. Microscopic analysis of the water samples was performed to characterize the community distribution and dynamics along the years. We observed that cyanobacteria represented a significant fraction of the phytoplankton community, up to 60% as biovolume, and a shift in the phytoplankton community distribution towards cyanobacteria dominance onwards 2010 was detected. The relationships between cyanobacteria biovolume, nutrients, and environmental parameters were investigated through simple and multiple linear regressions. We found that 14-days average air temperature together with total phosphorus may only partly explain the cyanobacteria biovolume variance at Lake Varese. However, weather forecasts can be used to predict an algal outbreak two weeks in advance and, eventually, to adopt management actions. The prediction of cyanobacteria algal blooms remains challenging and more frequent samplings, combined with the microscopy analysis and the metagenomics technique, would allow a more conclusive analysis.

Cyanobacterial Blooms in Lake Varese: Analysis and Characterization over Ten Years of Observations