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In this study, an interval linear fractional bi-level programming (ILFBP) model was developed for managing irrigation-water resources under uncertainty. The ILFBP can fully address system fairness, uncertainties, and the leader–follower relationship of decision makers in the optimization process, which can better reflect the complexity of real decision-making process and help formulate reasonable water policies. An interactive fuzzy coordination algorithm based on satisfaction degree was introduced to solve the ILFBP model. In order to evaluate the applicability of optimization schemes, the interval analytic hierarchy process (IAHP) and the interval technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) method were integrated as IAHP-TOPSIS. To verify its validity, the developed optimization-evaluation framework was applied to an irrigation water management case study in the middle reaches of the Shiyang River Basin, located in the northwest China. The ILFBP model results show that the total water allocation is [6.73, 7.37] × 108 m3, saving nearly 0.9 × 108 m3 more than the current situation. The benefit per unit of water is [2.38, 2.95] yuan/m3, nearly 0.4 yuan/m3 more than the status quo, and the Gini coefficient is within a reasonable range of [0.35, 0.38]. The ILFBP model can well balance economic benefits and system fairness. Through the evaluation bases on IAHP-TOPSIS, the results of ILFBP show better water allocation effects and applicability than the other two models in this study area. Furthermore, due to various characteristics such as geographical location, population and area, there are three irrigation districts, Xiying, Donghe, and Qinghe, showing higher importance than others when considering regional water allocation. These findings can provide useful information for limited water resource managers and help decision makers determine effective alternatives of water resource planning under uncertainty.

An Optimization-Evaluation Agricultural Water Planning Approach Based on Interval Linear Fractional Bi-Level Programming and IAHP-TOPSIS