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The objective of this study was to establish a technique to predict the occurrence of algal bloom and the algal-derived taste and odor compounds 2-methylisoborneol (2-MIB) and geosmin using a three-dimensional (3D) model that could reflect the complex physical properties of a shallow reservoir. Water quality, phytoplankton, and taste and odor compounds monitoring was conducted at the Jinyang Reservoir in 2016. In June, there was a potential for a high concentration of 2-MIB (maximum 80 ng/L) to occur owing to the appearance of Pseudanabaena sp.; additionally, from July to August, there was potential for a high concentration of geosmin (maximum 108 ng/L) to occur, because of the presence of Anabaena sp. A 3D hydrodynamic model was coupled with an ecological model to predict cyanobacteria bloom and the presence of taste and odor compounds. Cyanobacteria producing either 2-MIB or geosmin were distinguished to enhance the accuracy of the modeled predictions. The results showed that the simulations of taste and odor compounds spatial distribution and occurrence time were realistic; however, the concentration of geosmin was overestimated when Microcystis sp. was blooming. The model can be used as a management tool to predict the occurrence of algal taste and odor compounds in reservoir systems and to inform decision-making processes concerning dam operation and water treatment.

Predicting Taste and Odor Compounds in a Shallow Reservoir Using a Three–Dimensional Hydrodynamic Ecological Model