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The aim of this study is to elaborate on an integrated approach for transport planning in railway passenger transport in the case of uncertainty. The methodology consists of four stages. In the first stage, the parameters of a multi-criteria model in the case of uncertainty were determined. This includes defining the criteria for selection of a transport plan; formulation of the alternatives of the transport plan; formulation of the strategies and probability variants of passenger flow variation for each strategy. In the second stage, the weights of the probability variants of the strategies for change in passenger flow were determined using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. The alternatives of the transport plan were ranked by applying the sequential interactive modeling for urban systems (SIMUS) method based on linear programming. The results for the values of the criterion of ranking obtained through the SIMUS method and the weights of the variants of passenger flow variation calculated with the AHP method were used as input in the expected values in the decision tree. The selection of a suitable alternative in the case of uncertainty was conducted in the third stage by applying the decision tree method. In the fourth stage, verification of the results was made using Laplace’s criterion and Hurwitz’s criterion. The integrated multi-criteria approach was applied for Bulgaria’s railway network. The multi-criteria approach elaborated herein could be used for decision-making in the case of uncertainty about passenger flow; to investigate different strategies of passenger flow variation and to make decisions in case of instability of passenger flow or lack of sufficient travel data.

An Integrated Multi-Criteria Approach for Planning Railway Passenger Transport in the Case of Uncertainty