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Flash floods are important natural disasters in China that can result in casualties and property losses. In this paper, we present a quantitative approach to examine the driving factors of the spatiotemporal distribution of flash floods based on a geographical detector. The environmental background condition (elevation, slope, etc.), precipitation, and human activity factors, as well as changes in these factors, are investigated in Sichuan Province via a driving force analysis. The results show that heavy precipitation is the most important driver, with power of determinant (PD) values of 0.71 and 0.77 for the spatial distributions of flash floods from 1995 to 2004 and from 2005 to 2014, respectively. The PDs of population density are 0.65 and 0.78 in the same two periods, while those of elevation are 0.59 and 0.73. Precipitation variability is the most important driver of the spatiotemporal variability of flash floods, followed by GDP density and population density, with PDs of 0.48, 0.29, and 0.27, respectively. The results show that human activities and precipitation are the primary driving forces of the spatiotemporal variability of flash floods and should be the focus of flash flood prevention and forecasting.

Driving Force Analysis of the Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Flash Floods in Sichuan Province