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Provincial carbon emissions research is necessary for China to realize emissions reduction targets. Two-level decomposition model based on the Kaya identity was applied to uncover the main driving forces for the energy related carbon emissions in Shandong province from 1995 to 2011, an important energy base in China. Coal consumption is still the biggest contributor to the increased carbon emissions in Shandong. Decomposition results show that the affluence effect is the most important contributors to the carbon emissions increments. The energy intensity effect is the dominant factor in curbing carbon emissions. The emission coefficient effect plays an important negative but relatively minor effect on carbon emissions. Based on the local realities, a series of environment-friendly mitigation policies are raised by fully considering all of these influencing factors. Sustainable mitigation policies will pay more attention to the low-carbon economic development along with the significant energy intensity reduction in Shangdong province

Carbon Emissions Decomposition and Environmental Mitigation Policy Recommendations for Sustainable Development in Shandong Province