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Hydrological ecosystem services (HESs) such as water purification and water supply are important for providing other ecosystem services such as drinking water, recreation, and human health. Land use change caused by urbanization is a direct driver affecting the provision of HESs. The quantification and integration of HES into watershed management and urban planning have become increasingly important. In this study, we highlighted an integration of the InVEST and CLUE-S models to simulate and predict future changes of HES in a rapidly urbanizing lake basin, namely the Nansihu Lake basin of China. The spatiotemporal patterns of HESs including water yield, water purification, and sediment export in the past five decades (from 1980 to 2015) have been revealed through our integrated modeling approach. Furthermore, urbanization and land use change scenarios till 2030 were developed using land use, topography, climate, and soil data. It is found that due to the rapid expansion of urban land, water yield, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) export has increased by 5.5%, 7.38%, and 7.02%, respectively, while the sediment export has decreased by 4%. As a result, the risks of flooding and water quality degradation increased. Under a hybrid ecological and farmland redline policy (EFRP) scenario, the HESs have all been significantly improved compared to the level in 2015. This research can help to predict the future changes in HESs for land use management and ecological and environmental protection in the Nansihu Lake basin.

Assessing the Potential Impacts of Urban Expansion on Hydrological Ecosystem Services in a Rapidly Urbanizing Lake Basin in China