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This study measured the spatio-temporal change of the Arable Land Allocation Intensity (ALAI), and established a toughness index to evaluate the responses of grain productivities to the ALAIs in 31 provinces. The results show that the ALAI decreased in 31 provinces during 2005–2020, whereas the grain productivity responses differed. Though China’s Major Grain producing areas (CMGPA) experienced decreasing arable land allocation intensities compared with the non-CMGPAs, they still showed a robust toughness of grain productivity. The spatial barycenter of grain productivity moved towards Northeast China, which was much faster and further than the northwest movement of the ALAI, indicating a dislocated motion of grain production and ALAI. In all, both the toughness of grain productivity and the tightening arable land allocation intensities were apparent in the CMGPAs, especially in the northeastern CMGPAs in China. In order to improve the grain productivity on shrinking arable land resources, this study suggests that we tighten the quota of arable land transformed into construction land, improve the per-unit grain yield, and enhance the remote sensing technology and field surveys to better monitor the local governments’ performance in arable land management.

Evaluation of the Response of Grain Productivity to Different Arable Land Allocation Intensities in the Land Use Planning System of China