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Water and land resources are related to the security and stability of agricultural production, and the degree of matching in time and space directly affects regional agricultural production capacity and sustainable agricultural development. This paper intends to use the panel data of nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2019 and incorporate the static and dynamic spatial Durbin models with spatial effects under the geographical adjacency matrix and the comprehensive weight matrix of economic geography, so as to explore the direct effects and indirect effects, short-term effects and long-term effects of the matching coefficient of agricultural water and land resources on the agricultural economic growth in the Yellow River Basin. The results show the following: (1) The matching situation of agricultural water and land resources in different provinces along the Yellow River Basin are different; some are relatively short of water resources, some are relatively balanced in water and land resources, and some are relatively short of land resources. (2) The static spatial Durbin model shows that the direct effect of the matching coefficient of agricultural water and land resources on the agricultural economic growth of the province is not significant; the indirect effect and the total effect of the spatial spillover is significantly positive. (3) The dynamic spatial Durbin model under the two matrix forms shows that the short-term total effect of the matching coefficient of agricultural water and land resources on agricultural economic growth is significantly positive, while the long-term total effect is significantly negative, and the direction and degree of the short-term and long-term effects are inconsistent. This study provides a comprehensive analysis framework from the perspective of local and neighborhood effect, and short-term and long-term effect, which can provide a reference to reasonably adjust the matching of agricultural water and land resources to promote agricultural sustainable economic growth, especially for developing countries.

sustainability

Impact of Water and Land Resources Matching on Agricultural Sustainable Economic Growth: Empirical Analysis with Spatial Spillover Effects from Yellow River Basin, China