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Controlling the scale of civil buildings is of great significance for energy saving and emission reduction in the construction field. This paper analyzes and extracts the key index parameters for the calculation of various civil building areas, establishes a detailed calculation model of the total civil building area, and constructs three different scenarios to predict various civil building areas in China from 2020 to 2060. Under the three scenarios, the total amount of civil buildings in China will reach a peak of 93.5, 84.6, and 76.3 billion m2 in 2040, 2035, and 2035, respectively. Under the constraints of energy consumption and carbon emission, this paper suggests that civil buildings develop according to the medium control scenario. In 2035, the urban per capita residential area will reach a peak of 42 m2, the urban residential area will reach 43 billion m2, the rural per capita residential area will reach the peak of 55 m2, the rural residential area will reach 20.6 billion m2, and the public building area will reach 21 billion m2. By 2060, the total area of civil buildings will drop to 76.5 billion m2, including 37.1 billion m2 of urban residential buildings, 18.5 billion m2 of rural residential buildings, and 20.9 billion m2 of public buildings.

Forecast and Analysis of the Total Amount of Civil Buildings in China in the Future Based on Population Driven