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As the world moves toward decarbonization, Japan is experiencing a rapid introduction of solar modules. However, the country does not have an adequate social system for managing waste photovoltaic (PV) panels. A waste generation estimate would be needed to do this effectively. Usually, waste generation estimation is performed by assuming that the lifespan distribution is primarily dependent on the mechanical life of the target item. However, considering the continuing improvement in panel quality, consumers consider replacement or disposal before mechanical failure of the product. Therefore, to study consumer intention, we surveyed potential consumer decision making on replacement/disposal via a questionnaire survey and attempted to include the result as part of our waste panel generation estimation, which, to our knowledge, has never previously been carried out. Considering the owners’ decision making, waste panel generation was in advance compared with the case where we only assumed the mechanical failure of panels and housings. This indicated a huge number of potentially reusable panel generations. In addition to mechanical failure, waste panel generation due to owners’ decisions should also be considered for estimating maximum potential waste. Policy makers should prepare the appropriate recycling social system in advance, considering the possible reuse of panels, which fits the current social situation oriented toward a circular economy.

Potential Impact of Consumer Intention on Generation of Waste Photovoltaic Panels: A Case Study for Tokyo