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Based on the panel data of 216 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2016, this study selected five emission-reduction indicators (industrial SO2 removal rate, soot removal rate, comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste, domestic sewage treatment rate, and harmless treatment of domestic waste rate) to quantify the intensity of urban environmental regulations. Based on the intensity of environmental regulations, the authors further studied the impact of environmental regulations on economic quality (green total factor productivity) and environmental quality (PM2.5). The test results showed that the impact of environmental regulation on PM2.5 is a U-type change that first declines and then rises, while the impact of the implementation of environmental regulation on green total factor productivity is an inverted U-shaped change, which first increases and then decreases. On the one hand, appropriate environmental regulations are conducive to improving environmental quality and improving urban green total factor productivity. On the other hand, excessive environmental regulations have not only failed to improve environmental quality, but also have a negative impact on the improvement of economic quality. In addition, there are regional differences in the impact of environmental regulations, so it is necessary to formulate appropriate and local environmental regulatory policies.

Can a Win–Win Situation of Economy and Environment Be Achieved in Cities by the Government’s Environmental Regulations?