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The construction industry plays a crucial role in China’s fulfillment of the goal of achieving “carbon neutrality” in 2060. Based on the data of energy and building materials consumption of the construction industry in China and 30 provinces from 2008 to 2018, this paper constructs a model for measuring provincial CO2 emissions of China’s construction industry and establishes a Kuznets curve and elastic decoupling model of the industry’s CO2 emissions. The analysis based on the models shows that: (1) the CO2 emissions of China’s construction industry show a trend of increasing first and then decreasing; (2) in terms of the decoupling effects, most provinces are in a weak decoupling status of CO2 emissions; and (3) the Kuznets curve of the provincial construction industry shows an inverted “U” shape in recent years, and it is predicted that the CO2 emissions of the construction industry will reach the peak in 2034. It is possible for the construction industry to achieve “carbon neutrality”, but long-term efforts must be made for strategic planning, policies and regulations, industry standards, etc.

Provincial CO2 Emission Measurement and Analysis of the Construction Industry under China’s Carbon Neutrality Target