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In this study, we aim to carry out a coupling analysis of the thermal landscape and environmental carrying capacity of urban expansion in Beijing over the past 35 years to provide scientific grounding for city planning. The paper proposes a conceptual framework and develops an integrated quantitative approach to the coupling analysis between urban expansion, the urban ecological environment, and the urban landscape, including the Urban Eco-Environment Carrying Capacity Index (ECI), Landscape Spatial Structure Index, Landscape Thermal Index (LTI), and Transitional Landscape Index (TLI, Markov Chain Model). Urban expansion has been essentially dominated by policy adjustments and has been further influenced by socioeconomic development, which has contributed to four outbreaks of urban sprawl in Beijing. Urban expansion is an essential factor affecting ecological environment change. The Olympic Games in 2008 was the turning point for the urban landscape. The rate of urban expansion and improvement of the ecological landscape all changed significantly around the year 2008. The urban thermal distribution pattern coincided well with the featured landscape patches, representing an obvious reflection of the difference between urban green spaces and construction, while high-temperature areas were abundant in the urban center. Urban expansion has a positive effect on the ecological environment and landscape pattern when it is fully matured and well planned. It is expected that, by 2025, the ecological environment of Beijing will be significantly improved, and the proportion of high-temperature areas will decrease.

Coupling Analysis of the Thermal Landscape and Environmental Carrying Capacity of Urban Expansion in Beijing (China) over the Past 35 Years