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Hydrological process simulation and rainfall–runoff analysis are important foundations for reasonably evaluating changes in water resources. In this paper, the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model was used to simulate runoff without observed data for exploring the applicability of the model in the Kequ, Dari, and Jimai river basins in the source region of the Yellow River, and the Balegen River basin in the inland arid source region. The results show that, from 2015 to 2018, the VIC model had a good simulation effect. The Nash efficiency coefficients (NSE) of the four basins were all above 0.7, and the NSE of the Dari River basin reached 0.93. The relative error (RE) of the three river basins was about 5%, on average, and the RE of the Balegen basin was 6.50%, indicating that the model has good applicability in the study area. Climate perturbation experiments were performed to quantitatively analyze the relationship between rainfall and runoff. The results show that, in the source area of the Yellow River, rainfall and runoff are roughly linearly related. However, in the inland arid source area, temperature has a slightly greater impact on runoff than rainfall.

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Study on Runoff Simulation of the Source Region of the Yellow River and the Inland Arid Source Region Based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model