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To maintain sustainability and availability of regional water resources, appropriate integrated water resource management (IWRM) should be based on an assessment of water resource background and responses to regional development and utilization policies. The study proposed an assessment method combining hydrological variation analysis with a system dynamics (SD) model to support IWRM in the Baiyangdian Region, Northern China. Integrated variation analysis and attributive analysis were used to identify variation time and causes of runoff. Then, based on the current water resource situation, an accessibility analysis examined the possibility of achieving a water resources supply and demand balance of social economic development and the ecological environment within individual internal management. Finally, an SD model simulated water resource response to development policies to predict future policy impacts. Results showed that 65.18% of the impact on runoff was from human activities. Sustainability goals were impossible through internal management, but with eco-migration policies and 1 × 108 m3 inter-basin transferred water, it could quickly be achieved, and water ecosystem function could also be recovered. Establishment of the Xiong’an New Area necessitated introduction of integrated cross-basin management to protect the Baiyangdian Region from degradation of its ecological function. Our study proposed a new method for comparation of internal and cross-basin IWRM.

An In-Depth Assessment of Water Resource Responses to Regional Development Policies Using Hydrological Variation Analysis and System Dynamics Modeling