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Different estimations have been presented for the amount of electric vehicles in the future. These estimations rarely take into account any realistic dynamics of the vehicle fleet. The objective of this paper is to analyze recently presented future scenarios about the passenger vehicle fleet estimations and create a foundation for the development of a fleet estimation model for passenger cars dedicated to the Finnish vehicle market conditions. The specific conditions of the Finnish light-duty vehicle fleet are taken into account as boundary conditions for the model development. The fleet model can be used for the estimation of emissions-optimal future vehicle fleets and the evaluation of the carbon dioxide emissions of transportation. The emission analysis was done for four different scenarios of the passenger vehicle fleet development in Finland. The results show that the high average age of the fleet and high number of older gasoline vehicles will slow down the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions during the next five to ten years even with a high adoption rate of electric vehicles. It can be concluded that lowering the average age, increasing biofuel mixing ratios, and increasing the amount of rechargeable electric vehicles are the most effective measures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions of the Finnish passenger vehicle fleet in the future.

Influence of Increasing Electrification of Passenger Vehicle Fleet on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Finland