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A tiered hybrid input–output-based life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted to analyze potential environmental impacts associated with current US food consumption patterns and the recommended USDA food consumption patterns. The greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) in the current consumption pattern (CFP 2547 kcal) and the USDA recommended food consumption pattern (RFP 2000 kcal) were 8.80 and 9.61 tons CO2-eq per household per year, respectively. Unlike adopting a vegetarian diet (i.e., RFP 2000 kcal veg or RFP 2600 kcal veg), adoption of a RFP 2000 kcal diet has a probability of increasing GHGEs and other environmental impacts under iso-caloric analysis. The bigger environmental impacts of non-vegetarian RFP scenarios were largely attributable to supply chain activities and food losses at retail and consumer levels. However, the RFP 2000 vegetarian diet showed a significant reduction in the environmental impacts (e.g., GHGEs were 22% lower than CFP 2547). Uncertainty analysis confirmed that the RFP 2600 scenario (mean of 11.2; range 10.3–12.4 tons CO2-eq per household per year) is higher than CFP 2547 (mean of 8.81; range 7.89–9.95 tons CO2-eq per household per year) with 95% confidence. The outcomes highlight the importance of incorporating environmental sustainability into dietary guidelines through the entire life cycle of the food system with a full accounting of the effects of food loss/waste.

Life Cycle Assessment of Dietary Patterns in the United States: A Full Food Supply Chain Perspective