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This study aims to propose a model to forecast the volume of critical materials that can be recovered from lithium-ion batteries (LiB) through the recycling of end of life electric vehicles (EV). To achieve an environmentally sustainable society, the wide-scale adoption of EV seems to be necessary. Here, the dependency of the vehicle on its batteries has an essential role. The efficient recycling of LiB to minimize its raw material supply risk but also the economic impact of its production process is going to be essential. Initially, this study forecasted the vehicle fleet, sales, and end of life vehicles based on system dynamics modeling considering data of scrapping rates of vehicles by year of life. Then, the volumes of the critical materials supplied for LiB production and recovered from recycling were identified, considering variations in the size/type of batteries. Finally, current limitations to achieve closed-loop production in Japan were identified. The results indicate that the amount of scrapped electric vehicle batteries (EVB) will increase by 55 times from 2018 to 2050, and that 34% of lithium (Li), 50% of cobalt (Co), 28% of nickel (Ni), and 52% of manganese (Mn) required for the production of new LiB could be supplied by recovered EVB in 2035.

Recoverability Analysis of Critical Materials from Electric Vehicle Lithium-Ion Batteries through a Dynamic Fleet-Based Approach for Japan