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Based on the panel data of 11 regions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 1998 to 2016, we tested and analyzed the effects of high-tech industrial expansion on green development. For these regions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, we wanted to investigate the potential linear relationship between the scale of high-tech industry and green development or the possible threshold effect. We wanted to determine if this relationship is different in various regions of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. According to the empirical test, we found that: (1) for the entire Yangtze River Economic Belt region, the influence of high-tech industrial scale on green development doubled the threshold effect, and a marginal efficiency diminishing effect existed with the further increase in scale; (2) due to the differences among the regions, the threshold effect was different in different regions, with a double threshold effect in the lower reaches, a single threshold effect in the middle reaches, and no threshold effect in the upper reaches; and (3) regarding the high-tech industrial scale, the downstream areas were too large to weaken its promoting effect on green development. In the middle reaches, the positive impact on green development was still increasing, and the high-tech industrial scale should be further expanded. However, in the upstream areas, high-tech industrial scales did not reach the threshold value and the relationship between the high-tech industrial scale and green development was linear. Therefore, local high-tech industries should be cultivated and developed.

Threshold Effect of High-Tech Industrial Scale on Green Development—Evidence from Yangtze River Economic Belt