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Through an empirical study of ocean-borne trade between Hong Kong and New York, we combined qualitative and quantitative analysis to examine route selection decisions in a post-expansion era of the Panama Canal. A two-stage methodological framework was developed to assess the competitiveness of the three route alternatives, namely the Panama and Suez canals and the US intermodal system. In the first stage, a combination of literature review and expert knowledge was employed to identify the determinants of route selection. In the second stage, fuzzy theory and the multi-criteria decision-making technique were used to evaluate the criteria and the route alternatives. The results indicate that transportation cost is the most important factor in choosing a route, followed by transportation time, reliability, and route characteristics. The “all water route” via the Panama Canal is preferred over the Suez and U.S. intermodal options.

The Panama Canal Expansion and Its Impact on East–West Liner Shipping Route Selection