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This study aims to deepen the understanding of the role of the urban mobility sector in the current and future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of a middle-sized city of Brazil, which is also a developing economy. With the cross-reference between road and rail mobility data, governmental mobility planning, the Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories (GPC) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission quantification methodology, and the creation of scenarios for up to 10 subsequent years, it is possible to verify that individual motorized transport accounts for 60% of the total emissions from the urban transportation sector, with the largest amount of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq) emissions per passenger among all of the forms of mobility. However, in the case of this study, government mobility planning, by not encouraging more energy-efficient transport and non-motorized modes, ends up aggravating GHG emissions in the scenarios considered for 2020 and 2025. In turn, the mitigation scenarios proposed herein integrate public transport and non-motorized transport solutions that would reduce the total of equivalent carbon dioxide (tCO2eq) by at least 45,000 tCO2eq per year by 2025. This cross-referencing of the environmental impact of government mobility policies can be replicated in other cities in developing countries that do not yet present municipal inventories or emission monitoring.

Urban Mobility and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Status, Public Policies, and Scenarios in a Developing Economy City, Natal, Brazil