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Theft and vandalism impede the sustainability of renewable energy (RE) development projects in Sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, it is essential to explore where these crimes originate from, how they propagate and how they can be counteracted. In our study, we analyze the impact of these disturbances on implemented projects. We utilize a consumer clinic approach to generate data that represents the situation. We define our instigators practically (Government Inequality, Crime to Survive, Sabotage) and demarcate the actions of the offenders into 4 types: (1) vandalization of small RE projects (SPv); (2) theft of RE infrastructures from small RE projects (SPt); (3) vandalization of large RE projects (LPv); and (4) theft of RE infrastructures from large RE projects (LPt). To counteract these actions we define three types of security interference: human, societal and technical. We model the career of an RE criminal as a multi-stage Markov model. In every stage the offender can commit any of the offences SPv, SPt, LPv, LPt, or go to rest. Transition probabilities are our means to reflect offender maturity. Crucial to our model is that they are affected by the level of interference installed at the project site. Calibrated on a dialogue with 144 respondents, our Markov model directs us to adequate interferences per project. Specifically, for large projects technical and human security are the most effective, whereas, for small projects we recommend societal security. The paper introduces a mathematical model of the career of a RE-offender including the influence of security interference and calibrates the parameters through an ethnographic approach.

Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa