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Although teenage pregnancy and childbearing has declined throughout sub-Saharan Africa, the recent increase in teenage pregnancy in countries such as Malawi has prompted interest from social researchers. Using Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (MDHS) data from 2004 to 2015, this study employs multilevel logistic regression to examine the magnitude of change over time in risk and protective factors for teenage childbearing. During this period, teenage childbearing declined from 36.1% (C.I.: 31.5–36.7) in 2004 to 25.6% (C.I.: 24.0–27.3) in 2010 before increasing to 29.0% (C.I.: 27.4–30.7) in 2015. Age and being married (compared to never married) were consistently significantly associated with increased odds of teenage childbearing. However, delaying sexual debut, attaining secondary education, belonging to the richest quintile and rural residence offered protective effects against early motherhood, while Muslim affiliation (compared to Christian denominations) was associated with increased likelihood of teenage childbearing among adolescents. Teenage childbearing remains high in the country, largely influenced by adolescents’ early sexual debut and child marriage—risk factors that have hardly changed over time. While individual socioeconomic predictors are useful in explaining the apparent high risk of adolescent fertility among specific subgroups in Malawi, sustained declines in teenage childbearing were not evident at district level.

A Multilevel Analysis of Risk and Protective Factors for Adolescent Childbearing in Malawi