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Focusing on the global integrity monitoring performance of the BDS-3, the integrity failure model and effect analysis (IFMEA) of the system space segment and the ground control segment were carried out, and the system integrity risk tree model was established according to the IFMEA results. To evaluate the system’s integrity risk probability more reasonably, this paper establishes an abnormal event prediction model with a Bayesian method, based on actual operation data, under a situation in which the BDS-3 just opened service. With statistical analysis results of system anomalies since 27 December 2018—which is the date the BDS-3 began providing basic service—according to the anomaly prediction model, the system’s integrity risk probability under the 95% confidence limit was calculated to be approximately 0.9e-7/h, meeting the design index requirements of 1e-7/h. The analysis results also show that the main risk factors affecting the integrity of BDS-3 are ‘pseudorange measurement anomaly’ and ‘miss-detection of satellite autonomous integrity monitoring’. The results are important references with practical engineering significance for improving the integrity performance of BDS-3.

BDS-3 Integrity Risk Modeling and Probability Evaluation