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The natural shift in land cover from non-vegetated to vegetated land is termed as vegetation expansion, which has substantial impacts on regional climate conditions and land surface energy balance. Barrens dominate the northwestern Tibetan Plateau, where vegetation is predicted to expand northwestward with the ongoing climate warming. However, rare studies have confirmed such a forecast with large-scale vegetation monitoring. In this study, we used a landcover dataset, classified according to the International Geosphere–Biosphere Program criteria, to examine previous model-based predictions and the role of climate on the expansion rate across the plateau. Our results showed that shrublands, open forests, grasslands, and water bodies expanded while evergreen and deciduous broadleaf forests, croplands and barrens shrank during the period 2001–2018. Vegetation expanded by 33,566 km2 accounting for about 1.3% of the total area of this plateau and the land cover shifting from barrens to grasslands was the primary way of vegetation expansion. Spatially, the vegetation expanded northwestward to lands with colder, drier, and more radiation in the climate. Increasing precipitation positively correlated with the vegetation expansion rate for the arid and semi-arid northwest Tibetan Plateau and warming contributed to the vegetation expanding in the semi-humid southeast Tibetan Plateau. Our results verified the predictions of models and highlighted the “greening” on barrens in recent years.

Vegetation Expansion on the Tibetan Plateau and Its Relationship with Climate Change