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In this study a newly developed method called the Progressing and Backcasting models were used to evaluate the annual resource utilizations of steel scrap in Sweden and globally. The model results show that it is possible to assess the amounts of steel scrap available for steelmaking at a given point in time, based on statistical dynamic material flow models. By a better mapping of the available amounts of steel scrap reserves on a country basis, it is possible to ease the trade of scrap across country boarders. This in turn can optimize the supply of recyclable metals as a raw material used in the industry. The results for Swedish steel consumption show that export bans used to secure the domestic market of steel scrap do damage the internal market due to increased amounts of losses. This suggests that export bans should be lifted to optimize recycling in countries. The model results also show that the global losses of steel are higher than for an industrialized country such as Sweden. Furthermore, the results show that the Backcasting and Progressing models can be used to calculate robust forecasts on the long term availability of steel scrap assets. This information could be used for future structural plans of scrap consuming steelmaking mills and waste management facilities. Hence, it is possible to contribute to a sustainable industrial development and a circular economy

The Global Societal Steel Scrap Reserves and Amounts of Losses