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As debris flow is one of the most destructive natural disasters in many parts of the world, the assessment and management of future debris flows with proper forecasting methods are crucial for the safety of life and property. So increasing attention has been paid to the forecasting methods on debris flows. A debris flow forecasting method based on the rainfall-unstable soil coupling mechanism (R-USCM) is presented in the current study. This method is based on the debris flow formation mechanism. The density of sediment is introduced as an evaluation index to determine the susceptibility of debris flow occurrence. The forecasting method includes two phases: (1) rainfall and soil coupling and (2) runoff and unstable soil coupling. Scoops3D, a three-dimensional (3D) model for analyzing slope stability, was introduced into the debris flow forecasting method. In order to test the forecasting accuracy of this method, Jiaohe County was selected as a research area, and the serious debris flow disasters attributed to strong rainfall on 20 July 2017 were taken as the research case. By comparing the forecasting results with the debris flow distribution map for Jiaohe County, the method based on the R-USCM is feasible for forecasting debris flows at the regional scale. The application of the Scoops3D model can more reasonably analyze the slope stability than the traditional two dimensional (2D) method and improve the forecasting ability of debris flows.

processes

The Application of a Three-Dimensional Deterministic Model in the Study of Debris Flow Prediction Based on the Rainfall-Unstable Soil Coupling Mechanism