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Aging reactions due to heat and radiation cause chain scissions and cross-linking in cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE). We have developed theoretical and numerical graph models to study the evolution of the gel fraction and network properties during aging as well as the mass loss during thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). Our analytical and kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) based models that combine degradation reactions and a simple vaporization model can quantitatively predict TGA curves for aged XLPE. Fitting the model to experimental TGA data yields the number of scission reactions, showing that thermogravimetry combined with our models can present a nondestructive aging characterization tool for lifetime prediction.

Analytical and Numerical Modeling of Degradation and Pyrolysis of Polyethylene: Measuring Aging with Thermogravimetry