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The aging kinetics model is of great interest to scholars since it is capable of describing the variation law between the degree of polymerization ( DP ) and the aging duration of transformer polymer (cellulose) insulation. However, it is difficult to determine the moisture content inside the transformer polymer insulation without destroying it, so that the model parameters cannot be confirmed. Such limitation greatly restricts its application. It is interesting to note that as long as the moisture content of the transformer polymer insulation could be characterized (replaced) by a certain feature parameter, the above issue will be solved naturally. The existing researches indicate that the Frequency Domain Spectroscopy (FDS) is sensitive to moisture. Consequently, the feature parameter that could characterize the moisture inside transformer polymer insulation (extracted from the FDS curve) can be used to report a modified aging kinetics model, which could perform the aging condition prediction of transformer polymer insulation under various test conditions, including aging duration, aging temperature, and initial moisture. In that respect, the average relative error of prediction results of prepared samples is equal to 7.41%, which reveals that the reported model might be serviced as a potential tool for the aging condition prediction of transformer polymer insulation.

A Modified Aging Kinetics Model for Aging Condition Prediction of Transformer Polymer Insulation by Employing the Frequency Domain Spectroscopy