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A statistical model is developed in order to simulate the melt composition in electric arc furnaces (EAFs) with respect to uncertainties in (1) scrap composition, (2) scrap weighing and (3) element distribution factors. The tramp element Cu and alloying element Cr are taken into account. The model enables simulations of a charge program as well as backwards estimations of the element concentrations and their variance in scrap. In the backwards calculation, the maximum likelihood method is solved by considering three cases corresponding to the involved uncertainties. It is shown that the model can estimate standard deviations for elements so that the real values lie within the estimated 95% confidence interval. Moreover, the results of the model application in each target product show that the estimated scrap composition results in a melt composition, which is in good agreement with the measured one. The model can be applied to increase our understanding of scrap chemical composition and lower the charged material cost and carbon footprint of the products.

Model Development to Study Uncertainties in Electric Arc Furnace Plants to Improve Their Economic and Environmental Performance