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This article aims to study the schemes of forecasting the volatilities of Chinese futures markets and sector stocks. An improved method based on the cyclical two-component model (CTCM) introduced by Harris et al. in 2011 is provided. The performance of CTCM is compared with the benchmark model: Heterogeneous Autoregressive model of Realized Volatility type (HAR-RV type). The impact of open interest for futures market is included in HAR-RV type model. We employ 3 different evaluation rules to determine the most efficient models when the results of different evaluation rules are inconsistent. The empirical results show that CTCM is more accurate than HAR-RV type in both estimation and forecasting. The results also show that the realized range-based tripower volatility (RTV) is the most efficient estimator for both Chinese futures markets and sector stocks.

Volatility Forecasting Based on Cyclical Two-Component Model: Evidence from Chinese Futures Markets and Sector Stocks