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Air pollution control is one of the main challenges facing modern societies. Consequently, the estimation of population, affluence, and technology impacts on air pollution concentrations (STIRPAT modeling) has become the cornerstone of environmental decision-making. Spatial effects are not usually included in STIRPAT modeling of air pollution. However, space matters: accounting for spatial dependencies significantly improves the accuracy of estimates and forecasts, especially (or only) when dealing with small information units rather than with large ones (countries, large regions, provinces in China, counties and states in the USA, etc.). The latter scale is typical in the literature on air pollution due to the difficulties in finding data on its drivers at a true local scale. Accordingly, this paper has a double objective. The first is the estimation of a spatial panel data STIRPAT model, with the spatial units being both very small and also highly autonomous, developed municipalities. The second is to examine whether an environmental Kuznets curve relationship exists between income per capita and NOx concentrations. A case study has been carried out in the Autonomous Community of Madrid, Spain, at the municipal level.

A Local Spatial STIRPAT Model for Outdoor NOx Concentrations in the Community of Madrid, Spain