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Understanding the formation mechanism of farmers’ farmland value expectations not only helps to evaluate farmers’ land resource allocation behaviors, but also enables the government to create better policies that can effectively guide and manage farmers’ land value expectations. Based on cross-sectional data from the 2015 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) of rural residents, we used quantitative analysis models to identify the effect of farmers’ land expropriation experiences on their farmland value expectations, and the mechanisms of this effect. We found that after experiencing land expropriation, farmers’ farmland value expectations significantly increased; the effect was most pronounced in groups of farmers with low prior expectations. Land expropriation experience raises farmers’ farmland value expectations due to land scarcity. The use of monetized compensation in the process of land expropriation will significantly increase farmers’ farmland value expectations. The results suggest that land expropriation activities can directly change the land resource endowment of farmers, thereby stimulating farmers’ awareness of the need to protect their land rights and economic rights.

Does Land Expropriation Experience Increase Farmers’ Farmland Value Expectations? Empirical Evidence from the People’s Republic of China