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The impact of psychosocial vulnerability on pain in the year following breast cancer diagnosis has been little studied. To identify a score of psychosocial vulnerability (cognitive, emotional, quality of life and precariousness parameters) as a predictor of a pain trajectory, we conducted an observational prospective study and included women with newly diagnosed breast cancer. One year follow-up with 3 visits (day of breast cancer diagnosis; 6 and 12 months) aimed to identify distinct pain-time trajectories. Baseline psychosocial vulnerability was characterized by z-score transformation, a higher score representing a more vulnerable patient. A total of 89 patients were included (59.3 ± 10.7 years). Two trajectories of pain were identified—“Transient Pain trajectory” (TP) (39/89 patients) and “Persistent Pain trajectory” (PP) (50/89). A significant difference of pain over time between trajectories (PP vs. TP at 6 months: 2.23 ± 0.23 vs. 0.27 ± 0.09,  p  < 0.001) was observed. Psychosocial vulnerability showed a large effect size (d, −0.82; 95% CI, −1.25 to −0.38;  p  < 0.001) and a higher score in “Persistent pain trajectory” (PP vs. TP: 0.12 ± 0.36 vs. −0.14 ± 0.26,  p  < 0.001). A predictive vulnerability marker of pain development is proposed and could be used at cancer diagnosis to orientate the care pathway of patients experiencing breast cancer.

Predicting Pain Trajectories in the One Year Following Breast Cancer Diagnosis—An Observational Study