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Gully erosion is well-developed in the Jinsha dry-hot valley region, which has caused serious soil losses. Gully volume is regarded as an effective indicator that can reflect the development intensity of gully erosion, and the evolutionary processes of gullies can be predicted based on the dynamic variation in gully volume. Establishing an effective prediction model of gully volume is essential to determine gully volume accurately and conveniently. Therefore, in this work, an empirical prediction model of gully volume was constructed and verified based on detailed morphological features acquired by elaborate field investigations and measurements in 134 gullies. The results showed the mean value of gully length, width, depth, cross-section area, volume, and vertical gradient decreased with the weakness of the activity degree of the gully, although the decrease in processes of these parameters had some differences. Moreover, a series of empirical prediction models of gully volume was constructed, and gully length was demonstrated to be a better predictor than other morphological features. Lastly, the effectiveness test showed the model of V = aL^b was the most effective in predicting gully volume among the different models established in this study. Our results provide a useful approach to predict gully volume in dry-hot valley regions.

A Study on Prediction Model of Gully Volume Based on Morphological Features in the JINSHA Dry-Hot Valley Region of Southwest China