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This paper introduces a new simple approach for dam-break hazard mapping in a data-sparse region. A hypothetical breaching case of an earthen dam, i.e., the Ketro Dam in Central Java, (Indonesia) was considered. Open-access hydrological databases, i.e., TRMM and CHIRPS, were collected and compared with the rainfall ground station data to ensure data quality. Additionally, the 3-h rainfall distribution of the TRMM database was employed and validated with the measured data to establish the 24-h rainfall distribution of the probable maximum precipitation. The probable maximum flood discharge was computed with the SCS method, and the reservoir routing computation was conducted to determine the possible breaching mechanisms. The result shows that the Ketro Dam proves safe against overtopping, and thus only the piping mechanism has been taken into consideration. Using the breaching hydrograph, the open-access Digital Elevation Model MERIT Hydro, and the high-performance shallow water model NUFSAW2D, the flood propagation to the downstream part of the dam was simulated, enabling fast computations for different scenarios. The quantification of the susceptibility rate of urban areas was eased with overlay analysis utilizing InaSAFE, a plugin for the QGIS model. This study shows that even for a data-sparse region, the recent open-access databases in terms of hydrological and hydraulic aspects may be used to generate a dam-break hazard map. This will benefit the related stakeholders to take proper action to reduce the loss of life.

A Framework of Dam-Break Hazard Risk Mapping for a Data-Sparse Region in Indonesia