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Particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution is a threat to public health, and environmental taxation is an important regulatory mode controlling PM2.5 pollution. In 2018, China implemented the Environmental Protection Tax Law (EPTL) targeting PM2.5 pollution. Based on in-situ monitoring and emission inventory data, a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal model combining a two-period trends difference method was employed to measure the abatement effects of China’s EPTL on PM2.5 pollution (AEEPTLPM). On this basis, a spatial spillover index (SSI) of the AEEPTLPM is proposed. Applying this index, we calculated the spatial spillover characteristics of the AEEPTLPM in mainland China at a provincial scale in 2018–2019. The results show that the EPTL has had significant abatement effects on both in-situ-monitored PM2.5 concentrations and local total industrial PM2.5 emissions. Additionally, the two types of AEEPTLPM display distinct spatial heterogeneity. A correlation between the AEEPTLPM and the degree of PM2.5 pollution was observed; areas with serious PM2.5 pollution have higher AEEPTLPM levels, and vice versa. The SSI indicates that the AEEPTLPM exhibits significant spatial spillover characteristics, and spatial heterogeneity is also present.

Spatial Pattern and Spillover of Abatement Effect of Chinese Environmental Protection Tax Law on PM2.5 Pollution