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Carbon storage of mountain forests is vulnerable to climate change but the changes in carbon flux through time are poorly understood. Moreover, the relative contributions to carbon flux of drivers such as climate and atmospheric CO2 still have significant uncertainties. We used the dynamic model LPJ-GUESS with climate data from twelve meteorological stations in the Qilian Mountains, China to simulate changes in carbon mass of a montane boreal forest, and the influence of temperature, precipitation, and CO2 concentration from 1964 to 2013 on carbon flux. The results showed that the carbon mass has increased 1.202 kg/m2 from 1964 to 2013, and net primary productivity (NPP) ranged from 0.997 to 1.122 kg/m2/year. We concluded that the highest carbon mass proportion for this montane boreal forest was at altitudes 2700–3100 m (proportion of ecosystem carbon was between 93–97%), with maximum carbon density observed at 2700–2900 m. In the last 50 years, the increase in precipitation and in CO2 concentration is expected to increase carbon mass and NPP of Picea crassifolia Kom. (Pinaceae) (Qinghai spruce). The effect of temperature on NPP was positive but that on carbon mass was not clear. The increase in CO2 concentration over the past 50 years was a major contributor to the increase in carbon storage, and drought was the foremost limiting factor in carbon storage capacity of this montane boreal forest. Picea crassifolia forest was vulnerable to climate change. Further studies need to focus on the impact of extreme weather, especially drought, on carbon storage in Picea crassifolia forests.

Carbon Mass Change and Its Drivers in a Boreal Coniferous Forest in the Qilian Mountains, China from 1964 to 2013