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To explore the temporal and spatial evolution of carbon sinks in state-owned forest regions (SOFRs) and the efficiency of increased carbon sinks, this study used panel data from 19 periods in 40 key SOFRs in Heilongjiang Province from 2001 to 2019. Additionally, combined with geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technology, the individual fixed-effect model was used to estimate the number of forest management investment (FMI) lagging periods, and the panel threshold model was used to investigate the differences in the FMI efficiency in various forest regions. From 2001 to 2019, the carbon sink of key SOFRs in Heilongjiang Province showed an upward trend over time, with a growth rate of 20.17%. Spatially, the phenomenon of “increasing as a whole and decreasing in a small area” was found, and the carbon sink of each forest region varied greatly. The standard deviation ellipse of the carbon sink presented a “southeast–northwest” pattern and had “from southeast to northwest” migration characteristics. The FMI amount from 2001 to 2019 showed an upward trend, with a total of CNY 46.745 billion, and varied greatly among forest regions. Additionally, the carbon sink amount in each SOFR affected the FMI efficiency. The threshold of the model was 5,327,211.8707 tons, and the elastic coefficients of the impact of FMI below and above the threshold on the carbon sink were 0.00953 and 0.02175, respectively. The latter’s FMI efficiency was 128.23% higher than that of the former. Finally, the increase in FMI to a carbon sink followed the law of diminishing marginal benefits. Therefore, the government should rationally plan the level of FMI in each SOFR to improve the FMI cost-effectiveness and help achieve the goal of “carbon neutrality”.

forests

The Efficiency of Forest Management Investment in Key State-Owned Forest Regions under the Carbon Neutral Target: A Case Study of Heilongjiang Province, China