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The dynamic dimensioning of frequency restoration reserves based on probabilistic criteria is becoming increasingly relevant in European power grid operations, following the guidelines of European legislation. This article compares dynamic dimensioning based on k-means clustering to static dimensioning on a case study of the Greek electricity market. It presents a model of system imbalances which aims to capture various realistic features of the stochastic behavior of imbalances, including skewed distributions, the dependencies of the imbalance distribution on various imbalance drivers, and the contributions of idiosyncratic noise to system imbalances. The imbalance model was calibrated in order to be consistent with historical reserve requirements in the Greek electricity market. The imbalance model was then employed in order to compare dynamic dimensioning based on probabilistic criteria to static dimensioning. The analysis revealed potential benefits of dynamic dimensioning for the Greek electricity market, which include a reduction in average reserve requirements and the preservation of a constant risk profile due to the adaptive nature of probabilistic dimensioning.

An Overview of Probabilistic Dimensioning of Frequency Restoration Reserves with a Focus on the Greek Electricity Market