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Drought is a continuous process in Thar Desert, Pakistan. The extent of this drought needs to be assessed for future land use and adaptation. The effect of previous drought on vegetation cover of the Thar region was studied, through combined use of drought indices and geographic information (GIS) techniques. Five years (2002, 2005, 2008, 2011 and 2014) were selected to analyze the drought conditions and land use pattern of the Thar region. The drought indices used in this study included the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). Images of past drought were compared with post-drought images of our targeted area and land use maps were developed for spatio-temporal analysis. The results of the study revealed that vegetation in Thar showed an improving trend from 2002 to 2011 and then declined from 2011 to 2014. The rainfall occurred at a below average rate and SPI values for each year were calculated to be negative, indicating below average rainfall. This actual precipitation data was then compared with the data obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and R2; Pearson correlation coefficients were also calculated. The R2 values for the years 2002 and 2014 were 0.519 and 0.670 respectively. In the same manner, the Pearson correlation coefficient values for the years 2002 and 2014 were 0.721 and 0.867 respectively. The results showed the TRMM satellite’s over-estimation in calculating rainfall data. Further, the average temperature for the five years under study was analyzed by graphical representation and it was revealed that the temperature of Thar has increased by almost 1 °C during the last decade.

Spatial Drought Monitoring in Thar Desert Using Satellite-Based Drought Indices and Geo-Informatics Techniques