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The "rare type match problem" is the situation in which the suspect's DNAprofile, matching the DNA profile of the crime stain, is not in the database ofreference. The evaluation of this match in the light of the two competinghypotheses (the crime stain has been left by the suspect or by another person)is based on the calculation of the likelihood ratio and depends on thepopulation proportions of the DNA profiles, that are unknown. We propose aBayesian nonparametric method that uses a two-parameter Poisson Dirichletdistribution as a prior over the ranked population proportions, and discardsthe information about the names of the different DNA profiles. This fits verywell the data coming from European Y-STR DNA profiles, and the calculation ofthe likelihood ratio becomes quite simple thanks to a justified Empirical Bayesapproach.

A nonparametric Bayesian approach to the rare type match problem