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The first cases of COVID-19 in France were detected on January 24, 2020. Thenumber of screening tests carried out and the methodology used to target thepatients tested do not allow for a direct computation of the real number ofcases and the mortality rate.In this report, we develop a'mechanistic-statistical' approach coupling a SIR ODE model describing theunobserved epidemiological dynamics, a probabilistic model describing the dataacquisition process and a statistical inference method. The objective of thismodel is not to make forecasts but to estimate the real number of peopleinfected with COVID-19 during the observation window in France and to deducethe mortality rate associated with the epidemic.Main results. The actual numberof infected cases in France is probably much higher than the observations: wefind here a factor x 15 (95%-CI: 4-33), which leads to a 5.2/1000 mortalityrate (95%-CI: 1.5 / 1000-11.7/ 1000) at the end of the observation period. Wefind a R0 of 4.8, a high value which may be linked to the long viral sheddingperiod of 20 days.

Using early data to estimate the actual infection fatality ratio from COVID-19 in France (Running title: Infection fatality ratio from COVID-19)