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Precipitation on Svalbard can generally be linked to the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Atlantic. Using an automated circulation type classification, we show that weather type statistics are well represented in the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model at base resolution (MPI-ESM-LR). For a future climate projection following the Representative Concentration Pathway scenario RCP8.5, we find only small changes in the statistics. However, convection permitting simulations with the regional climate model from the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling in climate mode (COSMO-CLM) covering Svalbard at 2.5 km demonstrate an increase in precipitation for all seasons. About 74% of the increase are coming from changes under cyclonic weather situations. The precipitation changes are strongly related to differences in atmospheric conditions, while the contribution from the frequencies of weather types is small. Observations on Svalbard suggest that the general weather situation favouring heavy precipitation events is a strong south-southwesterly flow with advection of water vapour from warmer areas. This is reproduced by the COSMO-CLM simulations. In the future projections, the maximum daily precipitation amounts are further increasing. At the same time, weather types with less moisture advection towards Svalbard are becoming more important.

Circulation Specific Precipitation Patterns over Svalbard and Projected Future Changes