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Hurricane Otto (2016) was characterised by remarkable meteorological features of relevance for the scientific community and society. Scientifically, among the most important attributes of Otto is that it underwent a rapid intensification (RI) process. For society, this cyclone severely impacted Costa Rica and Nicaragua, leaving enormous economic losses and many fatalities. In this study, a set of three numerical simulations are performed to examine the skill of model estimations in reproducing RI and trajectory of Hurricane Otto by comparing the results of a global model to a regional model using three different planetary boundary layer parameterizations (PBL). The objective is to set the basis for future studies that analyse the physical reasons why a particular simulation (associated with a certain model setup) performs better than others in terms of reproducing RI and trajectory. We use the regional model Weather Research and Forecasting—Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) with boundary and initial conditions provided by the Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis (horizontal resolution of 0.5 degrees). The PBL used are the Medium Range Forecast, the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), and the Yonsei University (YSU) parameterizations. The regional model is run in three static domains with horizontal grid spacing of 27, 9 and 3 km, the latter covering the spacial extent of Otto during the simulation period. WRF-ARW results improve the GFS forecast, in almost every aspect evaluated in this study, particularly, the simulated trajectories in WRF-ARW show a better representation of the cyclone path and movement compared to GFS. Even though the MYJ experiment was the only one that exhibited an abrupt 24-h change in the storm’s surface wind, close to the 25-knot threshold, the YSU scheme presented the fastest intensification, closest to reality.

atmosphere

Examination of WRF-ARW Experiments Using Different Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations to Study the Rapid Intensification and Trajectory of Hurricane Otto (2016)